Decision Analysis to do simulation on Excel

Learning Goal: I’m working on a engineering case study and need the explanation and answer to help me learn.

This assignment builds off of the Overbooking case study from Chapter 9 in the Clemen and Reilly text.

Your task: submit a single excel spreadsheet with the following:

1. Construct a simulation model of the Mockingbird Airlines system. Each iteration of your simulation should assign a random number of shows/no-shows based on a binomial distribution.

2. Mockingbird needs to decide between selling 16, 17, 18, or 19 seats per flight. Run your simulation 1,000 times for each possible decision and gather the results (i.e., the profit for each run).

3. Provide a table with the average profit and standard deviation of the profit for each of the four possible choices.

4. Expand your simulation model to include uncertainties for the no-show rate and the cost per bumped passenger. Model the no-show rate as a uniform distribution between 0.02 and 0.06. Instead of a fixed $225 + $100 per bumped passenger, model the cost per bumped passenger as a normal distribution with a mean of $300 and and standard deviation of $40.

5. Provide a table with the average profit and standard deviation of the profit for each of the four possible choices.